Kousuke Ogura vs Ryotaro Matsumura Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In second serve performance over the last six months, Matsumura has a slight edge, winning 45.42% of points compared to Ogura's 42.31%. Could this minor advantage play a crucial role?
• When it comes to returning games, Ogura performs better on the opponent's second serve, winning 44.37% of points, whereas Matsumura wins 42.08% of these points.
• First serve return stats show Ogura again in the lead with 29.62%, while Matsumura trails at 26.29%. Will Ogura’s superior return game determine the match outcome?
• Matsumura has saved 43.53% of breakpoints recently, slightly behind Ogura, who has saved 49.05%, a critical stat for in-game pressure situations.
• Over the past year, Matsumura has won 54.17% of matches (13 wins, 11 losses), while Ogura has a lower win rate of 43.86% (25 wins, 32 losses).
• On indoor hard courts, Matsumura excels with a 71% win rate, but Ogura prefers hard courts, albeit with a lower win rate of 50%.
• Comparing levels, both players mostly compete in lower-tier tournaments, yet Matsumura shows a slightly better success rate with a 54.17% win percentage.
• Historically, Ogura has a 1-0 lead in head-to-head encounters against Matsumura, having won their sole match.
• Interestingly, neither player has won a tiebreak against the other, adding intrigue if their clash goes to tense moments.
• Matsumura has fought tougher opponents over the past 12 months, with an average opponent ranking of 328.04 compared to Ogura’s 374.32.
• In deciding sets against all players this year, Matsumura wins 33% of the time, a hair better than Ogura's 30% rate.
• Ogura is slightly more effective in converting breakpoints recently, converting 39.66% against Matsumura's 32.56%.

Editorial Prediction (September 3, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing the recent performance trends, Matsumura holds a slight edge in second serve points which often correlates with match success. However, this is counterbalanced by Ogura's superior return game, particularly on first serves, creating an interesting dynamic.

Ogura's ability to save breakpoints more frequently and a recent head-to-head victory give him additional confidence. On key pressure situations, both players show similar tendencies, with neither asserting dominance in tiebreak scenarios.

Matsumura's better win rate over the past year and experience against higher-ranked players also factor into the equation. This encounter promises to be competitive, but Ogura’s knack for converting breakpoints and his past win might suggest he edges out Matsumura in this matchup.

Considering all elements, Kousuke Ogura is slightly more likely to emerge victorious in this upcoming contest.